After making various arguments regarding the possible family connection of ROPERs and RAPERs in Colonial Virginia, it is time for me to throw in the towel and eat a little crow!
We now have in hand the DNA test results from five voluntary participants in a RAPER Y-Chromosomal DNA test.These are:
David Murray RAPER (DMR)
Tim A. RAPER(TAR)
Donald Wayne RAPER (DWR)
David Nolan RAPER (DNR)
Richard M. RAPER (RMR)
These male RAPER-surnamed individuals from various parts of the country basically trace their lineage to one of two early Colonial RAPER ancestors.David Murray RAPER, Tim A. RAPER, and Donald Wayne RAPER trace their lineage to John RAPER (b abt 1660, d abt 1719 - Pasquotank, NC).David Nolan RAPER and Richard M. RAPER trace their lineage to William RAPER (b. 1725, d 1795) of Abbots Creek, Rowan, NC.
The DNA tests reveal that David Murray RAPER, Tim A. RAPER, and Donald Wayne RAPER all share a Recent Common Ancestor.David Nolan RAPER and Richard M. RAPER are clearly related to one another, but are UNRELATED to David Murray RAPER, Tim A. RAPER, and Donald Wayne RAPER.
And NEITHER RAPER GROUP is related to ANY of several genetically distinct ROPER families tested to date and are certainly UNRELATED to the predominant American ROPER family found in Colonial Virginia and North Carolina, a group ROPER genealogist L. David ROPER identifies at the ROPER Family History website as "MUR" (for Majority USA ROPERs).This was the group that I had hypothesized might have been related to North Carolina RAPER families.That hypothesis very clearly must be REJECTED!
These are the locations of the genetic markers identified used in the Family Tree DNA testing:
393 390 19(394) 391 385a 385b 426 388 439 389-1 392 389-2
458 459a 459b 455 454 447 437 448 449 464a 464b 464c 464d
Here are the results for the first 12 markers for our group of RAPER test subjects together with the MUR values and MY OWN (WAR):
DMR: 13 25 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 14 30
TAR: 13 25 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 14 30
DWR: 13 25 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 14 30
MUR: 13 24 14 10 11 16 12 12 12 13 13 30
WAR: 13 24 14 10 11 16 12 12 12 13 13 30
RMR: 14 22 15+16 10 13 15 11 12 13 14 11 30
DNR: 14 22 15+16 10 13 16 11 12 13 14 11 30
Here are the results for the second group of 13 markers:
DMR: 17 09 10 11 11 25 15 18 26 15 16 16 17
TAR: 16 09 10 11 11 25 15 18 26 15 16 17 17
DWR: 16 09 10 11 11 25 15 18 26 15 16 17 17
MUR: 17 09 10 11 11 25 15 19 30 15 16 16 17
WAR: 18 09 10 11 11 25 15 19 30 15 16 16 17
DNR: 21 09 09 11 11 24 16 20 34 12 12 13 16
You will note that DMR, TAR and DWR have IDENTICAL values for the first twelve markers.Even absent the precision of the match in the next thirteen markers, this indicated that they almost certainly share a Recent Common Ancestor!While this does NOT prove any of their precise asserted lineages (for which one must look to traditional genealogical evidence), it DOES prove that these three RAPERs are almost certainly related!
While the values for this group of RAPERs might APPEAR to be similar to the DNA values for the Majority USA ROPER group (and my own values), it is important to distinguish just how DIFFERENT the values shown actually are.
The first RAPER group differs from MUR in the 2nd marker (25 vs 24), the 4th marker (11 vs 10), the 6th marker (14 vs 16), the 10th marker (14 vs 13) and the 11th marker (14 vs 13).So there are differences of one in the value of four markers and a difference of two in the value of another marker out of the first 12.
The probability of a deviation (mutation) in either direction (up or down) of a given marker in a single generation is estimated to be 0.2%.To put that a different way, the probability of there being NO DEVIATION for each marker is 99.8%.The probability of NO DEVIATION using 12 markers is the probability of a NO DEVIATION (0.998) for a single marker raised to the 12th POWER.This works out to about 97.626% for each generation.
Based solely upon the results of the first twelve markers, it appears that the Most Recent Common Ancestor between the Albemarle RAPERs and the Majority USA ROPERs (MUR) is probably more than 100 generations earlier.If one assumed about 25 years between generations, that would mean that the Most Recent Comman paternal male ancestor of the Albemarle RAPERs and the MUR ROPERs was probably more than 2,500 years ago, probably before 500 B.C.
To put this a different way, the Albemarle RAPERs and the MUR ROPERs seem most likely to be related by a common English ancestor unlikely to have had any surname at all!
RMR and DNR share values for eleven of the first twelve markers.They differ only in the 6th marker (15 vs 16).And they also share a very unusual dual peak (15+16) in the third marker.Matching 11 of 12 markers is suggestive that two test subjects are likely to share a Recent Common Ancestor, but possibly not quite as recent an ancestor as two test subjects with identical results.The common appearance of the very rare dual peak makes it even more likely that RMR and DNR are related.
Bear in mind that RMR and DNR each share a documented lineage to William RAPER of Abbotts Creek, Rowan County, so it is EXPECTED that they would match or very nearly match.In this case, the test PROVES what we all expected -- that RMR and DNR are related -- but also demonstrates particularly conclusively that the RAPERs of Rowan County descended from William RAPER appear to be UNRELATED to the Albemarle RAPERs from whom the first group of RAPER test subjects is descended.
And the tests also demonstrate that the Rowan County RAPERs are also unrelated to the MUR ROPERs or any of the other ROPER test subjects for which DNA test results are available to date.
Looking at the second group of thirteen markers, one sees very similar patterns.TAR and DWR have identical results.The results of DMR differ from those of TAR and DWR by one in the 13th marker (17 vs 16) and one in the 24th marker (16 vs. 17).Results for the second group of thirteen markers are NOT available for RMR, but frankly the results from the 1st 12 markers PROVE the relationship.Correspondence in the second set would only help to further narrow the degree of the relationship.
After about ten generations (twenty spanning generations up the lineage from one test subject to the common ancestor and down the lineage of the other test subject), it becomes MORE LIKELY that at least one marker out of 25 will DIFFER by one than that all of the markers will remain the same.Taking the results for the first group of twelve markers together with the 2nd group of thirteen markers, we find that TAR and DWR precisely MATCH, but that DMR differs from them by precisely TWO markers out of 25.A one marker difference is what would tend to be EXPECTED if they were separated by about ten generations.A two marker difference out of 25 tested becomes most likely after about twenty generations.
Bear in mind that a deviation (mutation) may spontaneously appear in ANY generation.The results tend to both support the existence of a Recent Common Ancestor amongst DMR, TAR and DWR and also to suggest that Tim and Wayne's common ancestor is a little more recent than their common ancestor with DMR.
I am also separated from the MUR markers by one marker out of twenty five.My own ROPER lineage is well documented going back eight generations and DNA testing has demonstrated that my own marker deviation from MUR is SHARED by another descendent of that same ancestor eight generations back:David ROPER (b 1744, d 1808).So the appearance of a one marker deviation seems to have first presented in one of the generations PRIOR to David ROPER (b 1744, d 1808).See http://www.roperld.com/RoperConnect.htmhttp://www.roperld.com/RoperConnect.htm for a discussion of some of the ROPER family connections and how the DNA evidence fits into an understanding of these various branches of the American ROPER family.
The Albemarle RAPER group is further differentiated from the MUR ROPERs in the second set of markers, with TAR and DWR differing at the 13th marker (16 vs 17), all three (DMR, TAR, DWR) differ in the 20th marker (18 vs 19), and all differ significantly in the 21st marker (26 vs 30),
For a more detailed discussion of the probability of marker differences after various time intervals, see the analysis I wrote for L.David ROPER posted at http://www.roperld.com/YMarkersProbabilities.htmhttp://www.roperld.com/YMarkersProbabilities.htm .
Also, despite the genetic differences between the distinctive MUR ROPERs and the Albemarle RAPERs, these groups are clearly much more closely related than the Albemarle RAPERs are to the RAPERs of Abbotts Creek Rowan County!
The Albemarle RAPERs seem to be members of what is described as the "R1b" Haplogroup.The Majority USA ROPERs is also from this same "R1b" Haplogroup.Family Tree DNA describes this Haplogroup in this way:
"Haplogroup R1b is the most common haplogroup in European populations. It is believed to have expanded throughout Europe as humans re-colonized after the last glacial maximum 10-12 thousand years ago. This lineage is also the haplogroup containing the Atlantic modal haplotype."
The Abbotts Creek RAPERs instead seem to fit into the "G" Haplogroup, which Family Tree DNA describes:
"This lineage may have originated in India or Pakistan, and has dispersed into central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The G2 branch of this lineage (containing the P15 mutation) is found most often in the Europe and the Middle East."
While the MUR ROPERs and the Albemarle RAPERs seem to share a Common Ancestor about 2,000 to 3,000 years ago, the Albemarle RAPERs are probably not related along paternal lines with the Abbotts Creek RAPERs for more than 10,000 years!
I KNOW that several of the RAPER test subjects have shown a great deal of enthusiasm for the RAPER DNA project.There still remain quite a few unanswered questions.Amongst these are:
1.Are the Albemarle RAPERs or the Abbotts Creek RAPERs related to the Yorkshire RAPERs?
2.Are these RAPER families related to the RAPERs of Colonial Maryland, the RAPERs of Western Virginia or the RAPERs of Ohio?
Hopefully, one or more British RAPER test subjects will emerge whose participation can help to distinguish and focus where each of these American RAPER families should be looking to find the sought after trans-Atlantic connection!
There are still other unanswered questions relating to possible ROPER-RAPER family connections, as well.There is not yet any persuasive genealogical evidence that any of the MUR ROPERs were actually descended from either the ROPERs of Anne Arundel, Maryland, or the ROPERs of Barbados.There are some ambiguous indications that one Henry ROPER/RAPER, of Barbados, is either a ROPER or a RAPER.
While the tests DO PROVE that William ROPER, of Anne Arundel, was NOT a common ancestor of both the MUR ROPERs and either of the North Carolina RAPER families, it remains unclear whether this William ROPER was an ancestor of one of the MUR ROPERs, the Albemarle RAPERs, William RAPER, of Abbotts Creek, or NONE of the above.The same may be said of the Barbados ROPERs/RAPERs.There may have been a separate ROPER and RAPER family there at different times or one family of some as of yet uncertain origin.
The ROPERs of Charleston have also NOT yet been clearly established to be of the MUR ROPER family, as we have NOT yet identified a ROPER test subject there.William ROPER, of Charleston, was clearly a contemporary of and sociallyinteracted with Robert RAPER, of Charleston.
I had thought that circumstantial evidence linking William ROPER, of Anne Arundel, with William RAPER, of Abbotts Creek, was particularly strong.In fact, I thought that the evidence supportive of a family connection between the Anne Arundel ROPERs and the Abbotts Creek RAPERS was STRONGER than the evidence supporting connection of the Anne Arundel ROPERs to any particular Virginia or North Carolina ROPER family.Similarly, there is persuasive evidence that this same ROPER family appeared on the Albemarle just before the appearance there of the Albemarle RAPERs.
What HAS been proved is that the Albemarle RAPERs, the Abbotts Creek RAPERs and the MUR ROPERs are NOT related.But it still has NOT been conclusively demonstrated how ANY of these families connect with British ROPER or RAPER families or how they are related to some ambiguous families for which we currently have inadequate traditional genealogical evidence and no DNA evidence whatsoever.
As of the date of this post, the ROPER family has DNA results for over fifty (50) test subjects.We have identified a number of genetically distinct ROPER families and have found many of the ROPERs in the United States to be related to one another.For a more thorough and up to date discussion of the ROPER DNA Study, see http://www.roperld.com/RoperGenetics.htmhttp://www.roperld.com/RoperGenetics.htm .
For a little more discussion about the first RAPER DNA test subject, see my post "First Y-Chromosomal DNA Test Results for a Descendent of Early NC RAPERs" (2 Apr 2003 5:55 AM GMT) at:
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More information regarding Y-Chromosomal DNA testing is also available from the firm which has been used for most of the ROPER and RAPER DNA tests to date:
Family Tree DNA
RAPER test subjects are encouraged to post details of their own established lineages as Replies to this message to help other RAPERs see where their own lineages might connect.